Even though it is gradually getting colder in Spitsbergen, the news about record-breaking temperatures in the Arctic are not stopping. For six years, Svalbard has been significantly warmer than usual, and the temperatures in November were up to 10 degrees above average.
The consequences of some days of extreme weather with strong precipitation in November: At least 50 landslides and avalanches were observed, parts of Longyearbyen even had to be evacuated.
Also in other parts of the Arctic it becomes obvious: It is quickly getting warmer than before. This applies both to the temperatures on land as well as in the sea, where up to four or even five (Isfjord, near Longyearbyen) degrees more have been measured. In some Arctic regions, the air temperature was actually 20 degrees above average (north pole).
And never before has there been so little ice on land as on the sea. Tricky: ice reflects the sun’s radiation. The less ice floats on the sea, the darker the sea surface and the more sunshine is absorbed. Researchers are worried that the summer sea ice might disappear completely from the Arctic.
In Longyearbyen, nobody is currently expecting a good ice winter with frozen fjords for the 2017 season.
On Spitsbergen it has been observed for some time that the permafrost ground is getting warmer and begins to thaw. This can lead to settlement damages on buildings, as they are currently already observed in several cases in Longyearbyen. In other Arctic regions such as Siberia, the thawing of permafrost ground in marshy areas, which have stored a lot of organic material in the cold soil, also leads to the release of large amounts of the highly aggressive greenhouse gas methane, which further stimulates climate change.
Climate change is no longer a scary newspaper message on Spitsbergen, but an everyday experience with effects on peoples’ daily life. More warm winters, avalanches and landslides and evacuations have to be expected in Spitsbergen in the coming years.
The extreme weather with strong precipitation last week has triggered more than “just” a few landslides near Longyearbyen. Damage was limited to minor material loss at a dog yard near Longyearbyen (the first one at the road into Adventdalen). More than 200 people had been evacuated from their homes for several days in case of a major event.
Satellite images have now shown that more than 50 landslides were triggered by the rainfalls just in Nordenskiöld Land between Longyearbyen and Barentsburg. This shows the lack of stability of the terrain during periods with strong rain.
Scientists expect extreme weather events like last week’s with very strong precipitation to increase in frequency and magnitude. Rainfalls of 50 mm within 24 hours or even more are, so far, untypical for the high arctic (“polar desert”). This means that geomorphological slope dynamics including landslides, snow- and slush avalanches and rockfalls.
This will be important knowledge both for arctic outdoor enthusiasts and city planners. Last year, 2 persons died in their homes in a snow avalanche that destroyed several residential houses in Longyearbyen.
Recent satellite image of Nordenskiöld Land in Spitsbergen showing Landslides triggered by last week’s rainfalls. Image: Copernicus/ESA.
All evacuations in Longyearbyen have been cancelled. The weather is calm and the authorities have estimated the situation as safe. Slopes that may produce landslides will be monitored.
The way west of the camping site towards Bjørndalen remains closed. This makes an area inaccessible where many locals have leisure huts. It is possible to walk to the huts, which is, however, not practicable for many purposes. The huts will only be accessible again by regular means when the road is opened again or the terrain is suitable for snow mobile traffic. Neither of these options is currently in view.
Some of the huts in this area will have to be moved or abandoned. It has happened before in Spitsbergen that huts endangered by coastal erosion where moved. The most famous example is Fredheim, the famous trapper hut in Tempelfjord, which was moved away from the coast in 2015. One or the other hut between Vestpynten (near the camping site) and Bjørndalen will receive a similar treatment and be moved at least to the other side of the road.
When and how the way itself will be secured or relocated is another and currently unanswered question.
The famous trapper hut at Fredheim was moved away from the coast in spring 2015 due to coastal erosion.
Extreme weather with strong winds and a lot of precipitation has held Longyearbyen in awe during the night from Monday to Tuesday. There was a fear for landslides from steep and largely water-saturated slopes near areas with living houses and infrastructures. Several roads were closed and a number of houses were evacuated Monday afternoon.
There have been several minor landslides, but no damage except from comparatively minor damage to a dog yard near Longyearbyen. The dogs in kennels at risk had been moved to other kennels before, all animals are well and safe.
On the coast between the camping site and Bjørndalen, coastal erosion is increasing due to high water and surf on unfrozen ground. Several cabins and parts of the roads are at risk and likely to get lost on the long term.
The administration, however, has decided to keep evacuations upright until further notice. Slope processes take their time, and there is still a risk of landslides. People are asked to stay away from steep terrain.
October had already been quite extreme in Spitsbergen, with unusually warm temperatures and a lot of rain. There were mudflows from Platåberg across the road between the church and Huset, the road was temporarily closed.
Now it is getting worse: up to 50 mm precipitation or even more are expected during the night from Monday (November 7) to Tuesday. Below 500 m altitude the precipitation is expected to fall as rain. Several roads in and near Longyearbyen are closed and houses in several roads are evacuated because of the risk of avalanches.
The Sysselmannen has issued several warnings. Amongst others, people are requested to stay away from steep terrain and from old buildings such as mines and parts of the old coal cablecar, which may collapse in extreme winds.
The danger of snow avalanches in higher terrain is high (stage 4).
The weather is expected to calm down Tuesday morning. Fingers crossed all goes well until then.
P.S. Personal remark for friends of the author: our home in Longyearbyen is not in the concerned area.